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Oscar 2017 predictions

For the past few years, I have tried to predict the winners in all categories at the Academy Awards. And for the past two years, I’ve also used statistics and data analysis to inform my decision in four categories: Best Picure, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress.

As for the last two years, I stick to what the model tells me for my prediction in these categories. However, I’m skeptical about the predictions I have for the acting categories. First, for best actor, Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck are the only two front-runners–there is no way Ryan Gosling will win this award. Second, for best actress, although I would argue that Emma Stone is now the favourite, Isabelle Huppert definitely has a chance too. Therefore, I expect to miss one of these categories.

Finally, this year is definitely La La Land’s show: 14 nominations, tied with Titanic and All About Eve for the most ever. I don’t think it will set a new record (which is 11 wins), but I expect them to win around 10 awards. I don’t expect them to run the tables in the sound/music categories–which would be a first for a musical. I think the only one of these four awards they could miss is Best Sound Editing, which I predict will probably go to Arrival.

My predictions are below, in bold. After the Academy Awards, I will update this post and point out the winners–I will indicate them in italics.

Update (2017/02/27): Wow! What a finale! As for my predictions, I did better than last year: 16/24.

Best Picture

  • Arrival (15%)
  • Fences (< 1%)
  • Hacksaw Ridge (< 1%)
  • Hell or High Water (< 1%)
  • Hidden Figures (< 1%)
  • La La Land (43%)
  • Lion (< 1%)
  • Manchester by the Sea (2%)
  • Moonlight (38%)

Best Director

  • Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” (98%)
  • Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” (1%)
  • Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” (< 1%)
  • Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” (< 1%)
  • Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” (< 1%)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

  • Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” (51%)
  • Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” (3%)
  • Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,” (38%)
  • Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” (3%)
  • Denzel Washington, “Fences” (5%)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

  • Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” (3%)
  • Ruth Negga, “Loving” (< 1%)
  • Natalie Portman, “Jackie” (< 1%)
  • Emma Stone, “La La Land” (95%)
  • Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” (< 1%)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
  • Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
  • Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
  • Dev Patel, “Lion”
  • Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Viola Davis, “Fences”
  • Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
  • Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
  • Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
  • Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

Adapted Screenplay

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hidden Figures
  • Lion
  • Moonlight

Original Screenplay

  • 20th Century Women
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • The Lobster
  • Manchester by the Sea


  • Arrival
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Silence

Best Documentary Feature

  • 13th
  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • O.J.: Made in America

Best Animated Feature

  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • 4.1 Miles
  • Extremis
  • Joe’s Violin
  • Watani: My Homeland
  • The White Helmets

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Ennemis Interieurs
  • La Femme et le TGV
  • Silent Nights
  • Sing
  • Timecode

Best Animated Short Film

  • Blind Vaysha
  • Borrowed Time
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  • Pearl
  • Piper

Best Foreign Language Film

  • A Man Called Ove
  • Land of Mine
  • Tanna
  • The Salesman
  • Toni Erdmann

Film Editing

  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • Moonlight

Sound Editing

  • Arrival
  • Deep Water Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Sully

Sound Mixing

  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  • 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Production design

  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Passengers

Music – Original score

  • Jackie
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Moonlight
  • Passengers

Music – Original song

  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”, La La Land
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling”, Trolls
  • “City of Stars”, La La Land
  • “The Empty Chair”, Jim: The James Foley Story”
  • “How Far I’ll Go”, Moana

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • A Man Called Ove
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • Suicide Squad

Costume Design

  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La Land

Visual ffects

  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Doctor Strange
  • The Jungle Book
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story