Oscar 2017 predictions

For the past few years, I have tried to predict the winners in all categories at the Academy Awards. And for the past two years, I’ve also used statistics and data analysis to inform my decision in four categories: Best Picure, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress.

As for the last two years, I stick to what the model tells me for my prediction in these categories. However, I’m skeptical about the predictions I have for the acting categories. First, for best actor, Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck are the only two front-runners–there is no way Ryan Gosling will win this award. Second, for best actress, although I would argue that Emma Stone is now the favourite, Isabelle Huppert definitely has a chance too. Therefore, I expect to miss one of these categories.

Finally, this year is definitely La La Land’s show: 14 nominations, tied with Titanic and All About Eve for the most ever. I don’t think it will set a new record (which is 11 wins), but I expect them to win around 10 awards. I don’t expect them to run the tables in the sound/music categories–which would be a first for a musical. I think the only one of these four awards they could miss is Best Sound Editing, which I predict will probably go to Arrival.

My predictions are below, in bold. After the Academy Awards, I will update this post and point out the winners–I will indicate them in italics.

Update (2017/02/27): Wow! What a finale! As for my predictions, I did better than last year: 16/24.

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Adapted Screenplay

Original Screenplay


Best Documentary Feature

Best Animated Feature

Best Documentary Short Subject

Best Live Action Short Film

Best Animated Short Film

Best Foreign Language Film

Film Editing

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Production design

Music – Original score

Music – Original song

Makeup and Hairstyling

Costume Design

Visual ffects