Oscar 2019 predictions

Again this year, I will be using a prediction model to try and predict the winners in the top four categories: Best Picure, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. As in previous years, I still provide predictions for the other categories, but they were derived on a more ad hoc basis.

According to most pundits, the Best Picture race is wide open. But as you’ll see below, my prediction is less equivocal. To see this, it’s informative to look at how the winning probabilities have changed over time as more information was coming in:

Winning probabilities

As we can see, my model does not weight all guild awards the same way: a win at the Producers’ Guild Awards (PGA) is worth a lot less than a win at the Directors’ Guild Awards (DGA) or at the Bafta. Still, given the preferential ballot system used by the academy, my model is probably underestimating the chances of a movie with broad appeal like Green Book.

My predictions are below, in bold. After the Academy Awards tomorrow, I will update this post and point out the winners–I will indicate them in italics.

Update (2019/02/25): I got 16 out of 24 right. This year really convinced me that my model for Best Picture is missing something about the broad appeal movies like Spotlight, The Shape of Water, and Green Book, and so it may be time to update it… Stay tuned!


BEST PICTURE

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE*

DIRECTING


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE*

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

CINEMATOGRAPHY

COSTUME DESIGN

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

FILM EDITING

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

SOUND EDITING

SOUND MIXING

VISUAL EFFECTS

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)